Sunday, June 24, 2012


The draft is just a few days away. Thought I would have a Sunday night update. Will probably have one more update Wednesday or Thursday. Analysis for the second round picks added.




1. New Orleans Hornets - PF Anthony Davis, Fr, Kentucky. 6'10, 222 lbs. The Hornets have already basically announced that Davis will be the pick. His shot blocking and rebounding is already NBA quality. He can run the floor, catch alley oops and is working on developing his offense. He has the chance to be a very special player and one that can lead the Hornets during the post-Chris Paul era.

2. Charlotte Bobcats - PF Thomas Robinson, Jr, Kansas. 6'9, 244. Charlotte is so bad that they really can't go wrong with Kidd-Gilchrist, Thomas Robinson, Harrison Barnes or Bradley Beal. The Bobcats are rumored to be leaning towards Robinson. Robinson measured out at a very impressive 6'9, 250, silencing concerns that he would be too small to play power forward in the NBA. If you are a terrible team, it is never a bad idea to draft size. Robinson has a great all around game and would give the Bobcats some scoring punch down low. He would be part of a very intriguing big man trio with Bismack Biyombo and Byron Mullens. The Bobcats are also kicking around the idea of trading down to stockpile more assets. It would be a mistake to move down past number 5 and miss out on those four guys in the second tier.

3. Washington Wizards - SG Bradley Beal, Fr, Florida. 6'5, 202 lbs. The Wizards recent trade confirmed what I thought for a while. Beal looks like he will clearly be the Wizards pick now. The team has a plethora of guys in the front court and also added Trevor Ariza, who is a good defender at small forward. Beal would be a great back court mate for John Wall, and allow Jordan Crawford to slide into a more natural sixth man scoring role. Beal is a good shooter and strong for his size, and his lack of height would not be as much of a hindrance playing next to the 6'4 Wall.

4. Cleveland Cavaliers - SF Harrison Barnes, So, North Carolina. 6'8, 228 lbs. I am more and more confident that Barnes would be the choice here over Michael Kidd-Gilchrist. Barnes has been owning his workouts and showing that his game may be much better suited for the NBA level.  Cleveland has such a huge need for another guy who can score the basketball.. Kyrie Irving is the only guy on the team that scares you when you are on defense. Barnes was exposed somewhat during the Tournament as someone who might need to play with a good point guard to be effective. He will be able to do just that with Cleveland. I think he is NBA ready right now and is a future 20 point per game scorer, though he may fall short of All Star status. Maybe a Danny Granger/Richard Jefferson type.

5. Sacramento Kings - SF Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Fr, Kentucky. 6'8, 233 lbs. The Kings would be ecstatic if the draft played out this way, as Kidd-Gilchrist would be a fantastic fit in Sacramento. He is a very good defender, and unlike virtually every other player on the Kings roster, does not need the ball in his hands to be effective. He can rebound and run the floor and swat a dunk attempt from behind. He would instantly become a fan favorite for a fan base that is tired of watching selfish basketball.

6. Portland Trail Blazers (from New Jersey Nets) - PG Damian Lillard, Jr, Weber St. 6'3, 189. Lillard looks like the clear cut best point guard in the draft. Lillard has separated himself from a weak group of point guards due to his strength and scoring ability. He will be more of a scorer then a distributor at the next level, but has the awareness to get the ball to his teammates. He protected the ball better then your average mid major scoring machine at point guard who has the ball in his hands the entire game. This is a very bad draft for point guards, and the Blazers have two picks in the lottery, so if they want to find their 1 of the future, taking Lillard here would be the way to go. He will not last past the Raptors at 8.

7. Golden St. Warriors - SG Dion Waiters, So, Syracuse. 6'4, 221 lbs. Waiters has been this drafts top riser and looks like he will be a top ten pick. I have no idea what direction the Warriors are going to go in, other then the pick will probably be a wing player. They would love to land Harrison Barnes and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, but that will not happen. I had Moe Harkless here in my previous mock, but that would be a very big reach. That leaves Waiters. He will not play small forward, but he is a very tough combo guard who would be a nice contrast to Stephen Curry. Klay Thompson has enough size to move to the small forward position. 

8. Toronto Raptors - SG Terrence Ross, So, Washington. 6'7, 197 lbs. Ross measured out with very good size and had great workouts. I think he has worked himself into the lottery. Ross is exactly the type of player the Raptors need. The Raptors really need a shooting guard with size who can stretch the defense with a three point shot. Ross is a strong 6'6, 200 and can hit the long ball. He might be the best shooter in this draft and has the size to play good defense for the position.

9. Detroit Pistons - C Andre Drummond, Fr, Connecticut. 7'0, 279 lbs. Andre Drummond will not last past this selection. He is a risk, but the Pistons have such a need for big men that he is a risk the team just has to take. He is one of only a few true 7 footers in this draft, and hypothetically a perfect fit next to Greg Monroe if he pans out. I cannot see the Pistons passing on Drummond to take guys like Meyers Leonard or John Henson, who have just as many questions marks as Drummond.

10. New Orleans Hornets (from Minnesota Timberwolves) - C Meyers Leonard, So, Illinois. 7'1, 250 lbs. I had Leonard in the lottery for much of the year, but moved him down during my last update. He returns to the lottery here. I think he has potential to be a pretty good player, even though he is thin and not ready to start in the NBA. Leonard stands at 7'1 and has the frame to pack on the weight without losing much explosiveness. The Hornets have the luxury of swinging for the fences after lucking out on Anthony Davis, and will probably go after a guy like Leonard or Perry Jones to form a potentially dominating front line.

11. Portland Trail Blazers - C Tyler Zeller, Sr, North Carolina. 7'0, 247 lbs. Unfortunately for the Blazers, their two biggest needs are the two most in demand positions every year in the NBA draft. They had to go point guard with their first pick, and almost miss out on a center after Drummond and Leonard are selected. Zeller does not have tremendous upside but should stick as a solid starting center for ten years. After the failed Greg Oden experiment, Portland would gladly take that.

12. Milwaukee Bucks - PF Terrence Jones, So, Kentucky. 6'10, 252 lbs. The Bucks would have liked to land Zeller or Leonard but both players are gone here. The Bucks really need a difference making big. Jones is a maddening player for scouts to watch. Glimpses of amazing talent followed by stretches where he disappears and does nothing. He has the size and skills to be a very unique combo forward and should be the best and most talented big man on the roster. The Bucks are taking more chances as they look to get back to the playoffs, and could gamble on either Terrence or Perry Jones here.

13. Phoenix Suns - SG Austin Rivers, Fr, Duke. 6'5, 203 lbs. The owner of the Suns only cares about selling tickets and making money. If he loses Steve Nash, he will have to try to replenish some of that star power. Rivers has a flashy, ESPN friendly game and should sell a few jerseys. That is good enough for Robert Sarver. As for Rivers, he measured taller then thought and could wind up being a solid starting shooting guard in the NBA. I think his "uncoachability" issues are overblown, he was just brought up as a scoring machine and it is hard to shake that game, especially in only one year of college.

14. Houston Rockets - SG Jeremy Lamb, So, Connecticut. 6'5, 179 lbs. Lamb is an absolute steal this late and should allow the Rockets to move on from the vastly overpaid Kevin Martin in a year or two. He has prototypical two guard size and is a pretty good defender for his position. The only reason he falls this far is due to question marks about his desire and motor. He is drafted by a very stable organization that does a good job of developing young players.

15. Philadelphia 76ers - PF Arnett Moultrie, Jr, Mississippi St. 6'11, 223 lbs. Moultrie is ready to play right away and brings a versatile skill set to the table. He has range out to the three point line but is a good rebounder, much better then your average "stretch four", a lable that has been attached to Moultrie. The Sixers have identified their biggest need as landing a guy who can shoot or rebound.

16. Houston Rockets (from New York Knicks) - PF Perry Jones III, So, Baylor. 6'11, 234. The Rockets tend to draft safe, productive college players. They have a few .500 seasons to show for it but might have to aim their sights a little higher if they want to make noise in the playoffs. Jones has much more potential then guys like Patrick Patterson and Marcus Morris. He has good size for the power forward position and the offensive skills to cause mismatches. He just needs to figure out what type of player he is going to be at the NBA level.

17. Dallas Mavericks - PF John Henson, Jr, North Carolina. 6'10, 216 lbs. Dallas really missed Tyson Chandler's game changing shot blocking ability last year. Henson will only be a part time player until he packs on some major weight, but has the same kind of shot blocking skills Chandler does. He would be great for 20 or so minutes off the bench per night.

18. Minnesota Timberwolves (from Utah Jazz) - SF Moe Harkless, Fr, St. John's. I do think Harkless could find his way into the late lottery, as he offers very good potential as a defender and slashing small forward. He isn't quite what the Timberwolves need, but after all the wings are gone, the Wolves will have to go a different direction. Harkless could be what the Wolves were hoping Wesley Johnson would.

19. Orlando Magic - PG Kendall Marshall, So, North Carolina. 6'4, 198 lbs. Other then Dwight Howard (for now) and Ryan Anderson (maybe for now), Orlando's whole lineup is old and could use some young guys to push them, so Denver should go with best player regardless of position. Marshall's lack of offense pushes him down the board, but he is a very smart and solid floor general with good size. The Tar Heels were lost without him.

20. Denver Nuggets - SF/PF Royce White, So, Iowa St. 6'8, 261 lbs. White had great workouts, and more importantly great interviews, calming concerns over his anxiety issues. He has a versatile, unique game that should work well with the rest of the Nuggets players. He recently shut down all workouts, bringing forth rumors that he has a promise. Everyone thinks it is from the Celtics, meaning he won't last past the 22nd pick.

21. Boston Celtics - PF Jared Sullinger, So, Ohio St. 6'9, 268 lbs. Sullinger is proof to why guys should strike while the iron is hot. He would have been a top five pick last year, but now weight issues, a terrible combine and now rumblings of a degenerative knee condition, as well as a ton of good players has killed his draft stock. As it stands now he could fall out of the first round all together. I don't think he will fall that far, because playoff teams will gladly take him to add to their bench. Boston has two picks here and they will not let a guy who has offensive game down low get past them. They have no big men to speak of.

22. Boston Celtics (from Los Angeles Clippers) - PF Andrew Nicholson, Sr, St. Bonaventure. 6'10, 234 lbs. Celtics should go best player available, unless a talented big man is available. Boston gets a guy who compliments Sullinger well with Nicholson, who has drawn some comparisons to Kenneth Faried.

23. Atlanta Hawks - PG Marquis Teague, Fr, Kentucky. 6'2, 180 lbs. No, I am not trying to be cute here by mocking Jeff Teague's brother to the Hawks. Atlanta has no bench to speak of and needs to take the best player available. Teague will take a few years to develop but I think he will wind up being better then his brother.

24. Cleveland Cavaliers (from Los Angeles Lakers) - C Fab Melo, So, Syracuse. 7'0, 255 lbs. The Cavaliers have four of the first 34 picks in this draft so they can afford to take a chance or two. Melo is the ultimate boom or bust player in the first round. He could wind up being a DeAndre Jordan like defensive presence or out of the league without ever playing a game.

25. Memphis Grizzlies - SG Evan Fournier, France. 6'7, 206 lbs. Fournier is the best of a weak group of international prospects and a lock to go in the first round. The Grizzlies could choose to keep him overseas for a year or two and save money to sign their restricted free agents. If he comes over right away, he will give the Grizzlies size and slashing ability off the bench.

26. Indiana Pacers - C Festus Ezeli, Sr, Vanderbilt. 7'0, 264 lbs. Following the retirement of long time backup big man Jeff Foster, the Pacers are woefully thin on the front court. Ezeli might not ever be a starting center in this league, but he can block shots and rebound, and is one of only a few 7 footers in this draft. He is a late first round lock in my opinion.

27. Miami Heat - SF Draymond Green, Sr, Michigan St. 6'8, 236 lbs. The Heat need to continue to use their late first round picks to build depth, as their key role players are all getting older. Green is ready to step in right away and provide a solid 20 minutes per night for a playoff team.


28. Oklahoma City Thunder - SF Jeffrey Taylor, Sr, Vanderbilt. 6'7, 212 lbs. The Thunder would probably love to move this pick. They are up against the cap and have extensions they are going to have to worry about soon. But the team likes to use their first round picks on guys who are ready to play. Taylor's defense is NBA ready and his offense won't hurt you.

29. Chicago Bulls - SG John Jenkins, Jr, Vanderbilt. 6'4, 212 lbs. The Bulls are always looking for guys who can shoot, and Jenkins may be the best shooter int his draft. He can't do much else, but shooters always find a role in the NBA.


30. Golden St. Warriors (from San Antonio Spurs) - SF Quincy Miller, Fr, Baylor. 6'10, 219 lbs. Miller has had a disastrous last couple of years, mostly thanks to injuries, and is now firmly on the first round bubble. The Warriors could not land a small forward with their first pick and Miller's potential could be too good to pass up here.

Round 2

31. Charlotte Bobcats - PG/SG Tony Wroten, Fr, Washington. Wroten is the perfect player to go very early in the second round. Good talent but major question marks.


32. Washington Wizards - SF Kostas Papanikolaou, Greece. The Wizards don't have room on their roster for another rookie, so they take the rising talented Greek small forward and stash him for a while.

33. Cleveland Cavaliers - SG Doron Lamb, So, Kentucky. The Cavaliers add another guy with offensive potential. A good spot up shooter who could start as a rookie.

34. Cleveland Cavaliers (from New Orleans Hornets) - PF/C Miles Plumlee, Sr, Duke. The Plumlee family might not be great basketball players, but boy are they athletic. Cleveland needs more front court depth.

35. Golden St. Warriors (from Brooklyn Nets) - PF/C Kyle O'Quinn, Sr, Norfolk St. Quinn is a raw but talented big man from a small school. He would make a good developmental big for the Warriors.

36. Sacramento Kings - SG Orlando Johnson, Sr, UC Santa Barbara. The Kings would like to add size here but in the second round you just have to go with best player available. Johnson is a guard with size who is a good defender.

37. Toronto Raptors - PG/SG Tyshawn Taylor, Sr, Kansas. Taylor is your classic combo guard that falls to the second round. Not enough point guard skills for the 1 but not enough size for the 2.

38. Denver Nuggets (from Golden St. Warriors) - SG Will Barton, So, Memphis. Barton is a big time scorer that doesn't have the strength to be a full time player. As part of a deep rotation like Denver has, he could contribute.


39. Detroit Pistons - SG Jared Cunningham, Jr, Oregon St. Cunningham was a good college scorer but is too undersized to be a 30 minute per game player in the NBA.

40. Portland Trail Blazers (from Minnesota Timberwolves) - PF Furkan Aldemir, Turkey. The Blazers have four of the first 41 picks, so they will probably use one on a stash guy.

41. Portland Trail Blazers - PG Scott Machado, Sr, Iona. Machado is a small school veteran, who lacks upside and will probably top out as a solid backup point guard.

42. Milwaukee Bucks - PF/C Henry Sims, Sr, Georgetown. Sims is the latest in a very long line of Georgetown centers. He is very skinny and will struggle to hold down bigger players, but he can score.

43. Atlanta Hawks (from Phoenix Suns) - SF Khris Middleton, Sr, Texas A&M. Middleton does have talent and should stick on an NBA roster. The Hawks really need to use all of their picks on guys who can contribute immediately, since they have absolutely no bench.

44. Detroit Pistons (from Houston Rockets) - SG/SF Tomas Satoransky, Czech Republic. The Pistons could have three rookies if Kyle Singler joins the team next year, so they could take a foreign guy to stash.

45. Philadelphia 76ers - SG William Buford, Sr, Ohio St. Buford is a productive, low upside guard who can really shoot the rock. The Sixers have way too many wing players who can't shoot.

46. New Orleans Hornets (from Dallas Mavericks) - SF Darius Miller, Sr, Kentucky. Miller knows how to be a role player. He was never a starter during his four years at Kentucky. He can shoot and play good defense.

47. Utah Jazz - SF Quincy Acy, Sr, Baylor. Acy is a tough, hard nosed forward that is simply way too small to be a full time power forward. He should carve out a role as a hustle player off the bench.

48. New York Knicks - PF Drew Gordon, Sr, New Mexico. Gordon is a good shot blocker and rebounder that relies on put backs for basically all of his offense. His hustle should earn him a spot on New York's shallow bench.

49. Orlando Magic - SF Hollis Thompson, Jr, Georgetown. Thompson has good length and can shoot the ball. He is not much of a ball handler though.

50. Denver Nuggets - SF Tornike Shengelia, Georgia (Country). The Nuggets don't have the room for three rookies. Shengelia is your classic Euro stretch four.

51. Boston Celtics - SF/PF Kevin Jones, Sr, West Virginia. Jones is a very good rebounder that doesn't have a true position. The Celtics don't have a bench, so he should find a spot.

52. Golden St. Warriors (from Atlanta Hawks) - PG Tu Holloway, Sr, Xavier. Holloway did not build upon his very impressive junior season. He is too small to be anything more then a deep bench player, but he can score the rock.

53. Los Angeles Clippers - PF Mike Scott, Sr, Virginia. Rebounding usually translates to the NBA, and Scott is a very good rebounder. The rest of his game is unremarkable but he could have a Reggie Evans like career.

54. Philadelphia 76ers (from Memphis Grizzlies) - PG/SG Terrell Stoglin, So, Maryland. Stoglin is a monster scorer who doesn't really have a position and was suspended from Maryland.

55. Dallas Mavericks (from Los Angeles Lakers) - SF Kris Joseph, Sr, Syracuse. Joseph is a good all around player without a trait to hang his hat on. His game is somewhat similar to current Maverick Shawn Marion.


56. Toronto Raptors (from Indiana Pacers) - SG/SF Alex Young, Sr, IUPUI. Young did everything for a very mid major team. He has some Andre Iguodala to his game.

57. Brooklyn Nets (from Miami Heat) - SG/SF Kevin Murphy, Sr, Tennessee Tech. Another do everytihng mid major player, Murphy dropped 50 points in a game this season.

58. Minnesota Timberwolves (from Oklahoma City Thunder) - SG Marcus Denmon, Sr, Missouri. A very undersized two guard who has deep range on his jump shot.

59. San Antonio Spurs - PG Josep Franch, Spain. A point guard with size. Since he was drafted by the Spurs, he will be a future All Star.

60. Los Angeles Lakers (from Chicago Bulls) - C Robert Sacre, Sr, Gonzaga. Sacre doesn't have a lot of ability, but he is 7 foot and that could be enough to get him drafted.

All logos courtesy of http://www.sportslogos.net/

0 comments: